A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
